Honestly I’ve debated writing all this but my biggest issues with current trends in push everything to AI and the unsustainable growth is infrastructure and Moore’s law.
Moore’s law broke during Covid with the supply chain. we no longer have the exponential growth in compute and it’s starting to show. We are hitting walls in fabrication and manufacturing that simply have slowed advances to the point it’s mostly coming from software and hardware isn’t keeping up. We get more efficiency out of each core every other cycle of production but more power is simply coming at the cost of bigger more power hungry systems.
Now that brings us to power. Power in the US specifically hasn’t been updated in generations. We are very behind in infrastructure and the Atlantic seaboard is going to show this hard in the coming 12-16 months. At the current growth of the AI datacenter boom Virginia will not have enough power output to meet demand by the end of 2027 and the closest expansion project for more capacity and output are tracked for late 29… that’s going to hit a crux either start cutting power and rolling brown outs across the east coast because it’s an interconnected grid (or worse some states will isolate themselves from the grid like Texas to protect their own citizens creating even more disjointed and broken systems. Or limit the datacenter boom significantly either by cutting power to datacenters during peak hours forcing them to generators or just shutting down buildout projects and expansion if older non efficient datacenters to protect the grid which will impact the economy and internet hard.
Some might say build them elsewhere but the last big boom the internet boom if the early 2000s was the last time we built major infrastructure around data lines and that’s resulted In the major backhaul connectivity of the internet to all converge in 5 major epicenters around the US. Ashburn VA, New Jersey right across the river from manhattan, Seattle Washington, Dallas Texas, and San Jose CA. Those are the Points of presence (PoPs) in the US where the most major network connections cross. This is why ashburn VA has become the hub of the internet because over 70% of global internet traffic flows through my backyard.
Building infrastructure to put connectivity at a point it wouldn’t experience high latency is a massive multi billion and year project no one is willing to take on elsewhere so they keep building around the epicenter along the train tracks (most dark fiber was placed by train following tracks)
So yeah we have a power issue that’s coming to a crux very soon and either everyone in VA will need a generator or solar in the next two years or the boom will be stalled hard and impact the entire world giving many companies that made promises they probably can’t fulfill an out (open AI)
So then this takes us to training data. We ran out. It’s done. There’s nothing left on the internet that hasn’t already been sucked up besides some private companies holding on to pii or other valuable data that is hard to offload due to compliance or governance restrictions or hard copies of data that just haven’t been digitized yet or the very few holdouts with private repos of data that refuse to sell for whatever reasons.
So what are they doing. Synthetic data (ai generated training data) which is way slower to advance the models on and using platforms like meta, google and such to have us generate new data through our own behavior.
That’s why gpt5 wasn’t as exciting as they lead on. One they don’t have had to throttle compute as they needs more AI datacenters to meet demand forcing them to push as much as they can to the older less power hungry models until they can build out more because hardware no longer scales up in compute you just need more of it which needs more water and power. And the training data is now AI slop fed so it’s not nearly as impressive learning because AI hasn’t hit a point it’s teaching its self new things it’s just creating more complex and optimized datasets that need more human feedback to ensure it’s accurate.
There was a video a while back if an interesting scenario if AI taking over the world in a decade bit reality is we are hitting hard impactful limits. I work in spaces where in DC there are task forces dedicated to failsafes when we hit the 2028 power crisis and the hold up to add more output or capacity is politics so far chance that’s gonna get fixed.
So yeah there’s my rant and my soap box I’ll hop off of. My doomed view point that’s bound to get down played.